The Endless War in Ukraine
Photo: Getty Images
Echoes of the First World War
by ROSS BARKAN
As Israel’s war in Gaza rages on, the second great conflict in the world threatens to slip out of the national consciousness. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has lasted nearly two years and maximalists on each side have no reason to come to the negotiating table. Vladimir Putin’s army has proved incapable of conquering Ukraine; it also cannot be easily repelled from the east. Volodymyr Zelensky wants Ukraine to join NATO, which could precipitate a far larger and deadlier war.
In the Nation, I argued it’s time to negotiate a ceasefire. This is a very unpopular position that has become slightly more popular because the ballyhooed Ukrainian counteroffensive has not succeeded. This is not the fault of the Ukrainians. It is how modern warfare operates, with the most sophisticated weaponry benefiting the troops who are on the defensive. This is why Russia storming through Europe, blitzkrieg-style, is a fantasy. Putin the tyrant can’t even seize Ukraine. But what the Russians can do is defend their position and pile up Ukrainian casualties. The math here is daunting because Russia is a far larger nation. Putin can afford to send ever more Russian men to their deaths. Russia is built for the slog, the stalemate.
And that’s what this is—a bloody and terrible stalemate. In 2022, I pointed out the contours of the conflict resembled the First World War’s, and this is very true today. World War Two analogies need to be discarded. This is the war before us.
From my Nation piece:
How does peace get done? The United States, which has pumped tens of billions into the war effort and is steering what amounts to a proxy war with Russia, must take the lead, along with Europe. A peace will be ugly because Russia cannot be completely broken or driven out. A peace will not be karmic. But it is necessary, now, before the bloodletting drags on for a third year. If the war continues on its course, it can last another two, three, or four years. It can go longer. The danger is greater than any faced in the 1910s because Russia and the United States have the largest nuclear stockpiles on Earth. The nuclear threat must be fully reckoning with. Even the Cold Warriors sought to avoid, whenever possible, direct conflict with Russia.
Few in the Biden administration seem to be thinking this way. Rather, they promise this or that piece of technology will deliver the vaunted breakthrough.
Will there be an appetite for diplomacy in 2024? No one actually knows. All that can be predicted for now is more death.