The big climate stories in 2024
Protesters at the March to End Fossil Fuels in New York City in September. Sarah Blesener for The New York Times
Last year was the warmest in recorded history. What does 2024 have in store?
by David Gelles
For starters, it is almost certain to be another scorcher. The naturally occurring El Niño will push up temperatures in much of the world and humans will continue pumping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
That will very likely mean more extreme heat, like Phoenix saw last summer in a record streak of days that hit 110 degree Fahrenheit or higher. It will mean more wildfires, like the ones that torched Canada, Europe and North Africa. And it will mean more unusually hot ocean temperatures that threaten coral reefs and melt glaciers.
But we’ll be keeping track of more than just the weather and temperatures this year. Here are six other big stories we’ll be watching:
The U.S. presidential election
President Biden’s signature legislative success has been the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, which turbocharged investment in clean energy. Biden has also strengthened emissions regulations and laid the groundwork for tackling industrial pollution. But more action looks unlikely if he fails to win a second term.
Donald Trump, who holds a commanding lead for the Republican presidential nomination, leads Biden by 46 percent to 44 percent among registered voters, according to a December Times/Siena poll of registered voters.
And if Trump returns to the White House, much of Biden’s work on climate change could be in jeopardy. During his four years as president, Trump pulled the United States out of the Paris climate agreement, rolled back environmental protections and promoted an across-the-board expansion of fossil fuels.
A second Trump term would most likely see more of the same. Mr. Trump has recently spoken on the campaign trail about expanding oil and gas drilling, and vowed to renege on the U.S. pledge of $3 billion to the Green Climate Fund.
If Trump wins, Republican operatives have prepared a comprehensive plan to undo federal efforts to address global warming: Shredding regulations to curb greenhouse gas pollution from cars, power plants, and oil and gas wells; dismantling almost every clean energy program in the federal government; and increasing the production of fossil fuels.
A Venture Global liquefied natural gas facility on the Calcasieu Ship Channel in Cameron, La. Brandon Thibodeaux for The New York Times
Fossil fuel production
The United States is already the largest producer of oil and gas in the world, and even more production is on the way.
The Biden administration last year approved the Willow drilling project. And as I reported over the holidays, it is currently considering approving a slew of natural gas export terminals that would set the stage for decades of additional methane production. Many other countries around the globe also have ambitious plans to expand oil, gas and even coal production in the years ahead.
Those plans are hard to reconcile with the growing calls to phase out fossil fuels. Last month in Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, leaders from more than 170 countries called for “transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner.”
So far, there are few meaningful signs that such a transition is actually underway. And until that happens, you can expect global temperatures to keep rising.
Wind turbines near Block Island, R.I., owned by Orsted, a Danish company. Chang W. Lee/The New York Times
Renewables growth
The world is hungry for energy, and while oil and gas production is growing, so, too, are solar and wind power.
Globally, more money is being put toward the development of new clean energy than fossil fuels. Last year, investments in solar outpaced investments in oil for the first time.
Those trends look set to continue, but renewable energy developers also face challenges ahead.
The offshore wind business has been battered by rising costs, shaky supply chains and volatile interest rates. Proposed solar and wind farms are running into problems getting permits. Nimbyism continues to get in the way of many new clean energy developments. And even when projects do get built, they face hurdles connecting to a power grid badly in need of a large-scale expansion.
For the U.S. to come close to achieving Biden’s goal of 100 percent renewable power generation by 2035, a lot will have to go right.