18 STEPS TO A DEMOCRATIC BREAKDOWN
Picture courtesy of aim.org
Democracy is most likely to break down through a series of incremental actions that cumulatively undermine the electoral process, resulting in a presidential election that produces an outcome clearly at odds with the voters’ will. It is this comparatively quiet but steady subversion, rather than a violent coup or insurrection against a sitting president, that Americans today have to fear most.
by Risa Brooks and Erica De Bruin. Illustrations by Hanna Barczyk
Five sets of actions fuel this corrosion: limiting participation in elections; controlling election administration; legitimizing and mobilizing social support for methods to obstruct or overturn an election; using political violence to further that end; and politicizing the regular military or National Guard to delegitimize election outcomes.
We have identified 18 steps to democratic breakdown and assigned a score of one to three alarm bells for each step, which indicates how big a threat we believe it poses to our democracy now.
Regulating participation in elections
These steps make elections closer than they would otherwise be or change the outcomes.
1
State legislatures pass laws that directly restrict voting access by making early and mail voting more difficult, imposing stricter voter ID requirements or increasing the likelihood of faulty voter purges. This year, legislatures in 19 states have passed new restrictions.
What to watch for: In solidly blue or red states, changing voting laws won’t make much difference, but new laws in states such as Florida, Georgia and Arizona could prove consequential.
2
The United States Supreme Court issues rulings that validate efforts to limit election participation. In July, the court upheld Arizona voting restrictions; the majority concluded that the Voting Rights Act of 1965 can be used only to strike down voting restrictions that impose a “substantial and disproportionate” burden. Other decisions upheld laws making it harder to vote in Ohio and North Carolina.
What to watch for: The outcome of pending litigation over voting laws in federal courts, particularly in Georgia; whether Congress passes either of two stalled bills that would protect voting rights.
3
While an election is in progress, election officials issue directives or civil-society groups sue to limit the number of polling places or sites to drop off absentee ballots.
What to watch for: Renewed efforts in key states such as Texas and Georgia during the 2022 and 2024 elections.
Controlling election administration
These steps put officials in place who may be willing to make decisions that subvert election outcomes. Of all the actions that contribute to democratic breakdown, these should be of most concern to voters right now.
4
State legislatures pass laws that give themselves more power over the administration and certification of elections, or impose criminal penalties on election officials. Such laws have been enacted in at least 14 states this year.
What to watch for: The outcome of a move underway in Wisconsin to eliminate the bipartisan election commission, charge its members with felonies and allow Republicans to assert full control of federal elections.
5
State and federal courts issue rulings that validate controversial efforts by states to unilaterally determine the administration and certification of elections, enabling them to control the outcome.
What to watch for: The outcome of lawsuits like the one in Wisconsin that seek to establish unilateral state control over election administration, including those for federal offices, such as the presidency.
6
Governors, state election boards or commissions appoint, or voters elect, chief election officials who are sympathetic to false claims of voter fraud and willing to use their position to undermine confidence in election results, create new voting regulations or interpret election rules to partisan advantage.
What to watch for: Battleground states Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida, where Republican candidates who publicly supported partisan audits or other actions to delegitimize the 2020 presidential election are now running for secretary of state or other statewide offices.
Consolidating elite and public support for anti-democratic actions
These steps build constituencies in support of the previously outlined steps.
7
Politicians and other elites convince federal judges to endorse the “independent state legislature” doctrine, which interprets the Constitution as enabling legislatures to make final determinations about the outcomes of federal elections. A blueprint for such an effort appears in a memo drafted by attorney John Eastman after the 2020 election to try to convince Vice President Mike Pence that there were legal grounds to overthrow the election results. This would provide social backing for courts ceding power to the states to control elections.
What to watch for: Increased funding and organizational efforts to mainstream the independent state legislature doctrine.
8
Politicians or other elites make statements casting doubt on the legitimacy of elections, or support repeated unwarranted audits of elections, to lay the groundwork for their own supporters to endorse future electoral challenges.
What to watch for: Well-funded and organized efforts to draft model laws and file legal briefs to engineer election outcomes.
9
Proponents of overturning an election encourage acts of violence to further polarize society and consolidate support among social allies. These could include local officials endorsing violence against their political opponents, such as the Michigan sheriff who defended militias members plotting to kidnap the state’s governor, politicians calling on particular militia groups to counterprotest at pro-democracy rallies, and militia leaders continuing to organize their groups to do so.
What to watch for: Politicians making new statements in support of acts of political violence; polls that show growing public support for violence to advance political goals.